Brazil and China can lead a new sustainable global order – if they place the Amazon at the center of their strategic partnership to ensure food supply, climate protection, and shared prosperity
By Alexandre Mansur and André Guimarães
Given the current international trade landscape, Brazil is increasingly looking to China as a key partner for the future. This means not only selling more products to the Chinese market but also leveraging Chinese expertise in strategic sectors such as electric vehicles, IT, telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, green technologies, and chemicals. It also involves more cooperation agreements and infrastructure investments from China in Brazil, aiming for shared development. However, for this partnership to be truly sustainable—and profitable in the long term—the Amazon must be placed at the center of the equation.
Brazil and China are deepening their strategic partnership around food security. On one side, China needs stable supplies of meat and soybeans for its vast and nutritionally transitioning population. On the other, Brazil has established itself as the top global supplier of these commodities to the Chinese market. This synergy generates economic benefits, strengthens productive interdependence, and drives bilateral investments in infrastructure and logistics.
This collaboration aligns with China’s vision of an “Ecological Civilization”—a development model that places sustainability at its core. For China, ensuring food security without ecosystem degradation is crucial for both its national strategy and global climate leadership. As a key supplier, Brazil could become a strategic ally in this transition by aligning its production with low-carbon principles that already guide Chinese investments in renewable energy and sustainable agriculture.
Threats to Productive Capacity: The Role of the Amazon and Cerrado
This partnership, however, will only remain viable if Brazil preserves its productive capacity—now threatened by deforestation in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. Without forests, rainfall decreases in the country’s main agricultural regions. Without rain, productivity collapses. The Amazon acts as a giant “moisture engine” that irrigates crops across Brazil’s Center-West, Southeast, and South. Destruction of these forests directly harms Brazilian agribusiness—90% of the sector depends on rainfall patterns. Their protection also aligns with China’s commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060.
As the world’s leading investor in clean energy, China has a vested interest in avoiding climate collapse in the Amazon—which could release 90 billion tons of CO₂ and derail global climate efforts. Partnerships in satellite monitoring (such as the CBERS program co-developed by Brazil and China), scientific cooperation, and investments in bioeconomy and innovative technologies could reconcile production with preservation.
Another key biome in Brazil-China trade relations is the Cerrado. This region produces most of the soy and beef exported to China. The Cerrado also contains 8 of Brazil’s 12 major river basins and plays a vital role in sustaining hydrological systems that feed the Amazon and much of the continent. Vegetation loss in this biome poses a serious threat to regional agricultural productivity. Since 2023, annual deforestation in the Cerrado has surpassed that of the Amazon, increasing climate risk for food production.
Studies by INPE, Embrapa, and IPAM show that deforestation is already disrupting the “flying rivers”—atmospheric moisture flows from the Amazon that ensure climate stability in agricultural zones. Between 1980 and 2019, 28% of farmland in the Amazon-Cerrado frontier fell outside the ideal climatic range. Projections are alarming: by 2060, 74% of these areas may become unsuitable for rainfed agriculture.
Cattle Ranching and Commercial Risks: Time for Change
The main driver of deforestation in the Amazon is still low-productivity, extensive cattle ranching, often expanding into illegally cleared land. About 92% of deforested areas become pasture, often supporting fewer than one head of cattle per hectare—a waste of land and a commercial liability. Research from the Amazônia 2030 project shows Brazil could double its beef production without further deforestation by restoring degraded pastures.
China has already signaled demand for sustainable commodities: in 2023, its Ministry of Commerce included “low carbon” as a criterion for strategic imports. Brazil could preempt future trade barriers by adopting certifications recognized by the Chinese market, such as the “Green Meat” system proposed by the China Meat Association. This would require investments in blockchain traceability and independent audits—fields in which Chinese companies like Alibaba and JD.com are already leaders.
An analysis made by Radar Verde, the index of zero-deforestation control by meat companies, revealed a concerning gap: of the 64 Brazilian slaughterhouses authorized to export to China. In 2024, 84% had “low” or “very low” control over deforestation risks in their supply chains—especially among indirect suppliers, where deforestation is most likely to occur. This misalignment could become a commercial and reputational liability for Brazil.
Sustainable Infrastructure: A Viable Path
Another critical challenge lies in infrastructure. The logistics corridors transporting soy, corn, and meat to China cut through sensitive Amazon regions. In recent discussions, new infrastructure investment agreements in Brazil have been signed to lower logistics costs for Brazilian exports to China. Without proper planning, these projects could accelerate deforestation, fragment forests, spark social conflict, and jeopardize the future of Brazilian agribusiness—while also undermining continental climate stability.
These corridors could be redesigned as “green routes” by incorporating Chinese technology, such as real-time IoT monitoring sensors (like those used in the Yangtze River Economic Belt); sustainable financing through the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) tied to zero-deforestation criteria; and community engagement through models of community ecotourism near Amazonian port zones.
Public planning with robust social and environmental criteria is essential—mapping cargo flows, comparing logistic alternatives, assessing environmental risks, and involving affected communities in decision-making. Forest-respecting infrastructure is vital to maintaining the competitiveness of Brazilian agribusiness.
A Partnership for the Future
Protecting the Amazon is not merely an environmental agenda—it is an economic and geopolitical imperative. Brazil’s food future and export capacity depend on a standing forest. China’s “Ecological Civilization” is not a local project, but a global vision that requires cooperation. For Brazil, conserving the Amazon means securing a place in the new sustainability-driven economy—where certified products are more valuable. For China, this partnership is an opportunity to demonstrate genuine global leadership by transforming supply chains.
According to Chinese journalist Jiang Yifan, the current moment represents a historic window of opportunity for a green partnership between China and Brazil. On one hand, China is undergoing structural changes in its domestic food market, with declining imports of beef and corn, increased agricultural self-sufficiency, and initiatives to reduce reliance on soybean meal in animal feed. These shifts reduce food security concerns as a barrier to environmental criteria in imports. At the same time, trade tensions with the United States create incentives for China to diversify suppliers, especially from Brazil. This gives China greater room to incorporate environmental standards in foreign purchases without compromising domestic supply.
On the other hand, Brazil must restore its environmental image and deliver tangible results ahead of COP30, which it will host in November. The country already has climate targets and commitments to reforestation and deforestation control, but it needs investments and incentives to fulfill them. If China aligns its agricultural import policy with Brazil’s climate goals—such as requiring traceability and sustainability standards—it could help end deforestation, support Brazil’s international commitments, and strengthen China’s own long-term food security.
For Jiang, a Brazil–China green alliance is an opportunity for joint Global South leadership, with geopolitical, environmental, and commercial impact. Together, the two countries can prove that development and nature are not opposites, but complementary pillars of our shared future.
*Alexandre Mansur is Director of Projects at O Mundo Que Queremos and Coordinator of the Radar Verde.
**André Guimarães is Executive Director at the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM) and Civil Society Special Envoy for COP30.
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